← Scottish Premiership 2016-17 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: E Anderson
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Aberdeen win | 63% | 50% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 29% | 4.36 | value: +26% |
| Partick win | 15% | 21% | 6.52 | value: +35% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 5 |
| 9 | Shots | 20 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.