← Scottish Premiership 2015-16 · Sat, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: G Aitken
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Ross County win | 55% | 51% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.87 | fair |
| Hamilton win | 20% | 25% | 4.95 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.