← Scottish Premiership 2015-16 · Sat, Jan 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J Beaton
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Dundee win | 42% | 42% | 2.32 | fair |
| Motherwell win | 31% | 35% | 3.16 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.