← Scottish Premiership 2015-16 · Sat, Jan 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: E Anderson
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Dundee United win | 52% | 53% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 18% | 3.95 | fair |
| Kilmarnock win | 23% | 29% | 4.17 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 15 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.