← Scottish Premiership 2014-15 · Wed, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A Crawford
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Celtic win | 75% | 68% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 18% | 5.93 | value: +8% |
| Partick win | 9% | 14% | 10.97 | value: +49% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.