← Scottish Premiership 2014-15 · Sat, Jan 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S Finnie
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Dundee win | 50% | 65% | 1.93 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 26% | 19% | 3.78 | fair |
| Motherwell win | 24% | 16% | 4.09 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 3 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 6 |
| 4 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.