← Premier League 2010-11 · Sun, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M Oliver
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Arsenal win | 69% | 62% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | 5.00 | value: +24% |
| Aston Villa win | 11% | 13% | 8.50 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 24 | Shots | 8 |
| 15 | On target | 5 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.