← Scottish Premiership 2010-11 · Wed, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S O'Reilly
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Motherwell win | 37% | 35% | 2.62 | fair |
| Dundee United win | 34% | 38% | 2.80 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.