← Premier League 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: H Webb
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Man City win | 62% | 65% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 29% | 4.00 | value: +15% |
| Sunderland win | 15% | 6% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 12 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.