← Scottish Premiership 2008-09 · Sat, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C Richmond
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Hibernian win | 36% | 35% | 2.60 | fair |
| Hearts win | 35% | 38% | 2.75 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.