← Scottish Premiership 2006-07 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D McDonald
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Dundee United win | 39% | 52% | 2.30 | value: +19% |
| Motherwell win | 33% | 20% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.