← Scottish Premiership 2005-06 · Wed, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D McDonald
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Celtic win | 61% | 79% | 1.53 | value: +21% ⚠ |
| Draw | 24% | 15% | 3.80 | fair |
| Hearts win | 15% | 6% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.