← Scottish Premiership 2005-06 · Sun, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: I Brines
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Celtic win | 45% | 48% | 2.20 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 38% | 3.25 | value: +23% |
| Hearts win | 27% | 14% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 20 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.