← Premier League 2009-10 · Sun, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M Clattenburg
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Man United win | 84% | 79% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 18% | 8.50 | value: +51% |
| Stoke win | 4% | 3% | 23.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 4 |
| 13 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.