← Premier League 2000-01 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Barry Knight
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Newcastle win | 40% | 2.25 |
| Aston Villa win | 34% | 2.60 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand