← Premier League 2009-10 · Tue, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S Bennett
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Aston Villa win | 44% | 33% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 37% | 3.30 | value: +22% |
| Wigan win | 27% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 18 |
| 6 | On target | 10 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.