← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Oldham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield win | 46% | 47% | 2.01 | fair |
| Swindon win | 28% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.60 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Swindon +0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 52% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 48% | 2.08 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Thomas Wilson-Brown · Swindon |
| 19' | ⚽ | Lee Bonis · Chesterfield |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ben Middlemas · Swindon |
| 51' | 🟨 | Junior Hoilett · Swindon |
| 58' | 🟨 | Ryan Stirk · Chesterfield |
| 61' | ⚽ | Dilan Markanday · Chesterfield |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ben Middlemas · Swindon |
| 78' | 🟨 | Lee Bonis · Chesterfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swindon | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | County Ground |
| coach days | 274.00 | 274.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1341.70 | 1382.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.00 | 17.07 |
| eye test v1 | -1.37 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| league points | 75.00 | 76.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.80 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.53 | 0.33 |
| solidity v1 | -1.46 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.78 | 26.85 |
| state index | -1.10 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.97 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.24 |