← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R Joyce
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Notts County win | 55% | 58% | 1.68 | fair |
| Bristol Rvs win | 23% | 19% | 4.00 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bristol Rvs −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Notts County −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 57% | 58% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 42% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.