← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Rock
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County win | 41% | 44% | 2.25 | fair |
| Oldham win | 34% | 32% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oldham −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Newport County −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 48% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 52% | 1.98 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Bobby Kamwa · Newport County |
| 29' | ⚽ | Will Sutton · Oldham |
| 35' | ⚽ | Dynel Simeu · Oldham |
| 38' | 🟥 | Mike Fondop · Oldham |
| 46' | ⚽ | Ben Lloyd · Newport County |
| 87' | 🟨 | Michael Spellman · Newport County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bobby Kamwa · Newport County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Garner · Oldham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Reagan Ogle · Oldham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Bobby Kamwa · Newport County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 24 | Shots | 12 |
| 14 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newport County | Oldham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Rodney Parade |
| coach days | 267.00 | 267.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1169.18 | 1337.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.46 | -22.83 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| league points | 37.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 61.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.18 | -0.96 |
| solidity v1 | 0.57 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 24.27 | 28.40 |
| state index | -0.97 | -0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.24 |