← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Dowle
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town win | 38% | 41% | 2.40 | fair |
| Accrington win | 34% | 31% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town +0 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Accrington +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 53% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 47% | 2.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Josh Woods · Accrington |
| 37' | ⚽ | Harry Forster · Crawley Town |
| 49' | ⚽ | Isaac Sinclair · Accrington |
| 58' | ⚽ | Taylor Richards · Crawley Town |
| 64' | ⚽ | Josh Woods · Accrington |
| 71' | ⚽ | Jay Williams · Crawley Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tyler Walton · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟨 | Charlie Barker · Crawley Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Accrington | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Wham Stadium |
| coach days | 267.00 | 236.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1234.13 | 1227.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.96 | 1.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | — |
| league points | 52.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | -0.78 |
| solidity v1 | -0.62 | 0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.92 | 25.34 |
| state index | -1.02 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 1.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 0.68 |