← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C Brook
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bristol Rvs win | 40% | 32% | 2.30 | fair |
| Tranmere win | 33% | 34% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 34% | 3.40 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bristol Rvs +0 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Tranmere +0 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 51% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 49% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.