← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Tue, Apr 14, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: T. Reeves
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield win | 37% | 33% | 2.50 | fair |
| Grimsby win | 35% | 41% | 2.65 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield +0 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Grimsby +0 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 49% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 51% | 1.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Liam Mandeville · Chesterfield |
| 34' | ⚽ | Lee Bonis · Chesterfield |
| 41' | ⚽ | — · Grimsby |
| 51' | 🟨 | Andy Cook · Grimsby |
| 59' | 🟨 | Armando Dobra · Chesterfield |
| 63' | 🟨 | Géza Dávid Turi · Grimsby |
| 82' | 🟨 | Reece Staunton · Grimsby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Stirk · Chesterfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Naylor · Chesterfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chesterfield | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | SMH Group Stadium |
| coach days | 256.00 | 256.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.25 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1365.60 | 1351.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.96 | 13.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.89 |
| league points | 69.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.00 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.66 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.84 | -0.15 |
| solidity v1 | 0.33 | 1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.80 | 26.41 |
| state index | -0.35 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.24 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 0.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.86 |