β EFL League Two 2025-26 Β· Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: S. Stockbridge
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield win | 65% | 67% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.20 | fair |
| Tranmere win | 13% | 12% | 7.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tranmere β1.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Chesterfield β1.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 54% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 46% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | π¨ | Kyle McFadzean Β· Chesterfield |
| 19' | π¨ | Sam Finley Β· Tranmere |
| 44' | β½ | Tom Naylor Β· Chesterfield |
| 53' | β½ | Sam Finley Β· Tranmere |
| 57' | π¨ | William Tamen Β· Tranmere |
| 66' | π¨ | Marko MaroΕ‘i Β· Tranmere |
| 77' | π¨ | Lewis Gordon Β· Chesterfield |
| 90' | π¨ | Kristian Dennis Β· Tranmere |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chesterfield | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | SMH Group Stadium |
| coach days | 253.00 | 161.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.25 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1372.31 | 1150.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.55 | -38.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.73 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| league points | 68.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 55.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.66 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | -2.29 |
| solidity v1 | 0.30 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.11 | 27.85 |
| state index | -0.04 | -1.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | -1.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 0.67 |