← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Watkins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town win | 43% | 42% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
| Accrington win | 28% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Accrington +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 59% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 41% | 2.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Will Davies · Fleetwood Town |
| 12' | ⚽ | Mark Helm · Fleetwood Town |
| 51' | ⚽ | Josh Woods · Accrington |
| 67' | 🟨 | Conor Haughey · Fleetwood Town |
| 72' | 🟨 | Devon Matthews · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟨 | Liam Coyle · Accrington |
| 90' | ⚽ | Detlef Esapa Osong · Fleetwood Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Accrington | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | The Wham Stadium |
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 253.00 | 253.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1245.48 | 1280.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.00 | -25.55 |
| eye test v1 | -1.14 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| league points | 51.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 64.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.64 | -0.80 |
| solidity v1 | -0.31 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.80 | 26.95 |
| state index | -1.22 | -1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.94 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.66 | 1.37 |