← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 11, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: W. Finnie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 55% | 56% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
| Bromley win | 18% | 18% | 5.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bromley −0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Milton Keynes Dons −0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 47% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 53% | 2.08 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Nathaniel Mendez-Laing · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 17' | ⚽ | Ben Wiles · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 18' | 🟨 | Curtis Nelson · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jon Mellish · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jon Mellish · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 67' | 🟥 | Jon Mellish · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 67' | 🟨 | Omar Sowunmi · Bromley |
| 71' | 🟨 | Zech Medley · Bromley |
| 74' | ⚽ | Marcus Ifill · Bromley |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jude Arthurs · Bromley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons | Bromley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadium MK |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 253.00 | 253.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1395.47 | 1448.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.36 | -4.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.82 |
| league points | 76.00 | 83.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 60.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 4.90 | 3.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.98 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | -1.26 |
| solidity v1 | 0.86 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 30.22 | 28.14 |
| state index | -0.59 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | -1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.35 |