← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 11, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S Oldham
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bristol Rvs win | 48% | 50% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
| Crawley Town win | 24% | 23% | 3.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Crawley Town −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Bristol Rvs −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 46% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 54% | 1.93 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 23 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.