← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Mon, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Duckworth
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County win | 60% | 62% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 3.80 | fair |
| Newport County win | 16% | 17% | 5.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newport County −1 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Notts County −1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 41% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 59% | 1.95 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Lucas Ness · Notts County |
| 23' | ⚽ | Lucas Ness · Notts County |
| 60' | 🟨 | Harrison Biggins · Newport County |
| 64' | 🟨 | Conor Grant · Notts County |
| 65' | ⚽ | Harrison Biggins · Newport County |
| 76' | 🟨 | Sven Sprangler · Newport County |
| 86' | ⚽ | Jayden Luker · Notts County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Iorpenda · Notts County |
| 90' | 🟨 | James Crole · Newport County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Notts County | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Meadow Lane |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 279.00 | 248.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1393.87 | 1170.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.98 | -0.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.62 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 48.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| league points | 73.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | -0.82 |
| solidity v1 | 0.80 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.49 | 24.47 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.55 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.12 |