← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Mon, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Laflin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham win | 45% | 44% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.20 | fair |
| Accrington win | 26% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gillingham −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Accrington −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 57% | 1.70 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 43% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Ronan Hale · Gillingham |
| 11' | 🟨 | Oliver Wright · Accrington |
| 24' | 🟨 | Nelson Khumbeni · Gillingham |
| 33' | 🟨 | Josh Woods · Accrington |
| 36' | ⚽ | Andy Smith · Gillingham |
| 42' | 🟨 | Garath McCleary · Gillingham |
| 56' | ⚽ | Garath McCleary · Gillingham |
| 75' | 🟨 | Tyler Walton · Accrington |
| 80' | 🟨 | Paddy Madden · Accrington |
| 81' | 🟥 | Tyler Walton · Accrington |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gillingham | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Priestfield Stadium |
| 🟥 |
| David Ogundele Abimbola · Accrington |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 248.00 | 248.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1222.43 | 1259.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.54 | -22.22 |
| eye test v1 | -1.10 | -1.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| league points | 46.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 60.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.62 | -1.99 |
| solidity v1 | -0.65 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.29 | 27.80 |
| state index | -1.83 | -0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.89 | -1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 2.14 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.62 |