← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County win | 63% | 60% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
| Cheltenham win | 15% | 16% | 6.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Notts County −1 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Cheltenham −1 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 50% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 50% | 1.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Isaac Hutchinson · Cheltenham |
| 16' | ⚽ | Jodi Jones · Notts County |
| 28' | ⚽ | Matt Palmer · Notts County |
| 35' | ⚽ | Isaac Hutchinson · Cheltenham |
| 46' | 🟨 | Lewis Macari · Notts County |
| 49' | 🟨 | Harry Ashfield · Cheltenham |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jacob Bedeau · Notts County |
| 66' | ⚽ | Tom Iorpenda · Notts County |
| 72' | ⚽ (og) | James Wilson · Notts County |
| 81' | 🟥 | Sam Sherring · Cheltenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonathan Tomkinson |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Notts County | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Meadow Lane |
| 90' | 🟨 | Isaac Hutchinson · Cheltenham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tyrese Hall · Notts County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 263.00 |
| 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1565.27 | 1426.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.54 | 17.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.82 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 66.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| league points | 67.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | -0.32 |
| solidity v1 | 1.34 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.49 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 0.99 |