← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Wed, Mar 18, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Mulhall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 57% | 56% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.70 | fair |
| Colchester win | 18% | 17% | 5.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons −0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Colchester −0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 51% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 49% | 2.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Kyreece Lisbie · Colchester |
| 19' | 🟨 | Samson Tovide · Colchester |
| 39' | ⚽ (og) | Matt Macey · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 44' | 🟨 | Daniel Crowley · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 52' | 🟨 | Jack Sanders · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 72' | 🟨 | Tom Flanagan · Colchester |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jack Payne · Colchester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadium MK |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 229.00 | 229.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1427.83 | 1340.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.45 | -11.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.75 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 71.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 4.21 | 5.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.89 | -0.03 |
| solidity v1 | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 29.44 | 28.44 |
| state index | 0.61 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.48 |