← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Barlow
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge win | 65% | 59% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 23% | 4.50 | fair |
| Gillingham win | 15% | 18% | 6.25 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gillingham −1.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Cambridge −1.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 53% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 47% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Dominic Ball · Cambridge |
| 28' | 🟨 | Lenni Rae Cirino · Gillingham |
| 36' | ⚽ | Louis Appéré · Cambridge |
| 42' | 🟨 | Andy Smith · Gillingham |
| 50' | ⚽ (og) | Lenni Rae Cirino · Cambridge |
| 54' | ⚽ | Sullay Kaikai · Cambridge |
| 84' | 🟨 | Bradley Dack · Gillingham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Shayne Lavery · Cambridge |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cambridge | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Abbey Stadium |
| coach days | 225.00 | 225.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1426.33 | 1263.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.47 | -34.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.58 |
| league points | 65.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 19.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 60.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | -1.13 |
| solidity v1 | 1.29 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.20 | 26.29 |
| state index | 0.10 | -1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.27 |