← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 14, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Corlett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County win | 43% | 43% | 2.15 | fair |
| Chesterfield win | 30% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Notts County −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 48% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 52% | 1.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Oliver Norburn · Notts County |
| 16' | ⚽ | Armando Dobra · Chesterfield |
| 19' | 🟨 | Oliver Norburn · Notts County |
| 19' | 🟥 | Oliver Norburn · Notts County |
| 23' | 🟨 | Sam Curtis · Chesterfield |
| 31' | 🟨 | Sil Swinkels · Chesterfield |
| 36' | ⚽ (og) | Sil Swinkels · Notts County |
| 42' | 🟨 | Nick Tsaroulla · Notts County |
| 44' | ⚽ | Tom Naylor · Chesterfield |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tom Naylor · Chesterfield |
| 45' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 5 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Notts County | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Meadow Lane |
| ⚽ |
| Matthew Platt · Notts County |
| 66' | ⚽ | Liam Mandeville · Chesterfield |
| 70' | 🟨 | Sammy Braybrooke · Chesterfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matthew Dennis · Notts County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jacob Bedeau · Notts County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 256.00 | 225.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1400.69 | 1360.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.31 | -6.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.61 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| league points | 64.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.97 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.19 | 26.81 |
| state index | 0.07 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.93 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |