← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Tue, Mar 10, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: H. Wager
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 47% | 44% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
| Gillingham win | 25% | 28% | 3.70 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gillingham +0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Milton Keynes Dons +0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 49% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 51% | 2.08 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Alex Gilbey · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 23' | 🟨 | Daniel Crowley · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 26' | ⚽ | Gethin Jones · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 33' | ⚽ | Marvin Ekpiteta · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 44' | 🟨 | Ronan Hale · Gillingham |
| 51' | ⚽ | Ben Wiles · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 60' | 🟨 | Aaron Rowe · Gillingham |
| 77' | ⚽ | Sebastian Palmer-Houlden · Gillingham |
| 87' | ⚽ | Liam Kelly · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lenni Rae Cirino · Gillingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gillingham | Milton Keynes Dons |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Priestfield Stadium |
| coach days |
| 221.00 |
| 221.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1441.74 | 1563.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.53 | 20.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| league points | 45.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 65.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.42 | -0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.50 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |