← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Jackson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County win | 39% | 41% | 2.35 | fair |
| Walsall win | 31% | 34% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Walsall +0.25 | 55% | 1.70 |
| Notts County +0.25 | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 56% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 44% | 2.35 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Jamie Jellis · Walsall |
| 36' | 🟨 | Brandon Comley · Walsall |
| 45' | ⚽ | Aaron Pressley · Walsall |
| 49' | 🟨 | Jodi Jones · Notts County |
| 51' | 🟨 | Matthew Dennis · Notts County |
| 55' | 🟨 | Conor Grant · Notts County |
| 79' | ⚽ | Oliver Norburn · Notts County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harrison Burke · Walsall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Keanan Bennetts · Notts County |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jodi Jones · Notts County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Walsall | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Bescot Stadium |
| coach days | 157.00 | 249.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 1.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1475.32 | 1552.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.84 | -12.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | — |
| league points | 53.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | 0.75 |
| solidity v1 | -0.40 | 1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.76 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 0.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.65 |