← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Dale
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield win | 52% | 57% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Shrewsbury win | 21% | 17% | 4.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Shrewsbury −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 50% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 50% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Tom Naylor · Chesterfield |
| 45' | ⚽ | Trey Samuel Ogunsuyi · Shrewsbury |
| 70' | ⚽ | Trey Samuel Ogunsuyi · Shrewsbury |
| 80' | 🟨 | Matthew Cox · Shrewsbury |
| 84' | 🟨 | Trey Samuel Ogunsuyi · Shrewsbury |
| 85' | ⚽ | Tom Pearce · Chesterfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Armando Dobra · Chesterfield |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sam Stubbs · Shrewsbury |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chesterfield | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | SMH Group Stadium |
| coach days |
| 218.00 |
| 218.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1536.82 | 1404.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.51 | 61.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 47.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.76 |
| league points | 56.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 52.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | -2.20 |
| solidity v1 | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | -2.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.13 |