← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Tue, Mar 3, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield win | 42% | 41% | 2.20 | fair |
| Colchester win | 31% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Colchester −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Chesterfield −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 54% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 46% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Teddy Bishop · Colchester |
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Will Grigg · Chesterfield |
| 30' | 🟨 | Jack Tucker · Colchester |
| 39' | ⚽ | Dilan Markanday · Chesterfield |
| 41' | 🟨 | Kyreece Lisbie · Colchester |
| 61' | 🟨 | Kyle McFadzean · Chesterfield |
| 72' | ⚽ | Lee Bonis · Chesterfield |
| 87' | 🟨 | Harvey Araujo · Colchester |
| 90' | 🟨 | Janoi Donacien · Chesterfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | John-Kymani Gordon · Colchester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chesterfield | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | SMH Group Stadium |
| coach days |
| 214.00 |
| 214.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1522.76 | 1513.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.37 | -4.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| league points | 53.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.08 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | 1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |