← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Brown
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County win | 47% | 46% | 1.96 | fair |
| Grimsby win | 27% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Notts County −0.25 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Grimsby −0.25 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 46% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 54% | 1.93 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Jude Soonsup-Bell · Grimsby |
| 36' | 🟨 | Tom Iorpenda · Notts County |
| 45' | 🟨 | Géza Dávid Turi · Grimsby |
| 50' | 🟨 | Harvey Rodgers · Grimsby |
| 76' | 🟥 | Lee Ndlovu · Notts County |
| 85' | ⚽ | Charles Vernam · Grimsby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Scott Robertson · Notts County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matthew Dennis · Notts County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Notts County | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Meadow Lane |
| coach days |
| 242.00 |
| 211.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1566.24 | 1480.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.48 | -17.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.81 |
| league points | 61.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | -0.38 |
| solidity v1 | 1.43 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.66 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.91 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.92 | 1.59 |