← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Wager
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County win | 57% | 60% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.60 | fair |
| Tranmere win | 18% | 19% | 5.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Notts County −0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Tranmere −0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 48% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 52% | 2.00 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ (og) | Jason Lowe · Notts County |
| 34' | 🟨 | Zech Obiero · Tranmere |
| 41' | 🟨 | Lewis Warrington · Tranmere |
| 45' | 🟨 | Matthew Platt · Notts County |
| 46' | ⚽ | Lee Ndlovu · Notts County |
| 55' | ⚽ | Lee Ndlovu · Notts County |
| 57' | ⚽ | Jodi Jones · Notts County |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Matthew Dennis · Notts County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Notts County | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Meadow Lane |
| coach days | 235.00 | 112.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1557.73 | 1390.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.23 | -23.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.66 |
| league points | 58.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 62.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | -1.11 |
| solidity v1 | 1.24 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.82 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.64 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 1.20 |