← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: E. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town win | 48% | 45% | 1.91 | fair |
| Barrow win | 26% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barrow −0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Fleetwood Town −0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 48% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 52% | 1.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Jay Lynch · Fleetwood Town |
| 12' | ⚽ (pen) | Josh Gordon · Barrow |
| 34' | ⚽ | Niall Canavan · Barrow |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rekeem Harper · Barrow |
| 64' | ⚽ | Detlef Esapa Osong · Fleetwood Town |
| 73' | 🟨 | Ched Evans · Fleetwood Town |
| 86' | 🟨 | Josh Gordon · Barrow |
| 89' | ⚽ | — · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ben Jackson · Barrow |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Wyll Stanway · Fleetwood Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fleetwood Town | Barrow |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Highbury Stadium |
| coach days |
| 204.00 |
| 51.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 3.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1460.72 | 1369.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.65 | -21.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| league points | 41.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | -0.64 |
| solidity v1 | 0.77 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.14 |