← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Wed, Feb 18, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: T. Parsons
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby win | 52% | 52% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
| Walsall win | 19% | 23% | 4.75 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Grimsby −0.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Walsall −0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 57% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 43% | 2.40 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Kacper Łopata · Walsall |
| 32' | ⚽ | Priestley Farquharson · Walsall |
| 45' | 🟥 | Myles Roberts · Walsall |
| 50' | ⚽ | Andy Cook · Grimsby |
| 66' | 🟨 | Andy Cook · Grimsby |
| 68' | ⚽ | Andy Cook · Grimsby |
| 71' | ⚽ | Aaron Pressley · Walsall |
| 86' | 🟨 | Sam Hornby · Walsall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Grimsby | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Blundell Park |
| coach days | 201.00 | 140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1339.21 | 1330.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.09 | -46.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | -1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.75 |
| league points | 48.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 56.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 34.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 11.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.72 | -2.04 |
| solidity v1 | 1.08 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.51 | 26.00 |
| state index | 0.15 | -1.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.88 | -1.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.85 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.22 |