β EFL League Two 2025-26 Β· Sat, Feb 14, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A. Humphries
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Tranmere win | 43% | 40% | 2.15 | fair |
| Crawley Town win | 31% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Crawley Town β0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Tranmere β0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 54% | 47% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 53% | 2.05 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 15 |
| 13 | Fouls | 5 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand