← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Wager
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon win | 41% | 37% | 2.25 | fair |
| Shrewsbury win | 31% | 34% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Swindon +0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 52% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 48% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Iwan Morgan · Shrewsbury |
| 22' | 🟨 | Luca Hoole · Shrewsbury |
| 31' | 🟨 | Ollie Clarke · Swindon |
| 32' | 🟨 | Kevin Berkoe · Shrewsbury |
| 45' | 🟨 | Iwan Morgan · Shrewsbury |
| 45' | 🟨 | James Ball · Swindon |
| 45' | ⚽ | Billy Kirkman · Swindon |
| 58' | ⚽ | George Lloyd · Shrewsbury |
| 82' | ⚽ | Nick Freeman · Shrewsbury |
| 88' | 🟨 | Aidan Borland · Swindon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Shrewsbury | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | The Croud Meadow |
| coach days | 197.00 | 197.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1192.92 | 1394.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.06 | 17.95 |
| eye test v1 | -1.04 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| league points | 26.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.95 | 0.30 |
| solidity v1 | -0.43 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.54 | 27.60 |
| state index | -1.16 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.49 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.91 |