← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Young
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham win | 38% | 34% | 2.45 | fair |
| Bromley win | 33% | 33% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.20 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gillingham +0 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Bromley +0 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 62% | 1.70 | value: +6% |
| Over | 45% | 38% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Armani Little · Gillingham |
| 10' | ⚽ | Ben Thompson · Bromley |
| 19' | ⚽ | Ben Thompson · Bromley |
| 27' | 🟨 | Mitchell Pinnock · Bromley |
| 27' | ⚽ | Corey Whitely · Bromley |
| 44' | ⚽ | Bradley Dack · Gillingham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Corey Whitely · Bromley |
| 48' | ⚽ | Ben Thompson · Bromley |
| 89' | 🟨 | Zech Medley · Bromley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 20 | Shots | 13 |
| 11 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 5 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gillingham | Bromley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Priestfield Stadium |
| coach days | 183.00 | 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1319.89 | 1447.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.94 | 14.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.87 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 67.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| league points | 38.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 54.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 37.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | -1.71 |
| solidity v1 | 0.46 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 29.16 | 27.73 |
| state index | -0.19 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.08 | -2.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.28 | 1.72 |