← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 31, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: K. Dowle
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 37% | 35% | 2.45 | fair |
| Grimsby win | 36% | 34% | 2.57 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Grimsby +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 49% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 51% | 2.05 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand