← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Tue, Jan 27, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Oldham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walsall win | 52% | 59% | 1.76 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
| Crawley Town win | 20% | 16% | 4.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Walsall −0.5 | 56% | 1.78 |
| Crawley Town −0.5 | 44% | 2.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 53% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 47% | 1.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Charlie Barker · Crawley Town |
| 32' | 🟨 | Max Anderson · Crawley Town |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jamille Matt · Walsall |
| 54' | 🟨 | Josh Flint · Crawley Town |
| 61' | 🟨 | Mason Hancock · Walsall |
| 63' | 🟨 | Kellan Gordon · Crawley Town |
| 87' | 🟨 | Akinwale Odimayo · Crawley Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Courtney Clarke · Walsall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 22 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 12 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Walsall | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Bescot Stadium |
| coach days | 118.00 | 148.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -6.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 9.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1371.93 | 1250.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.31 | -31.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.62 |
| league points | 47.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.58 | -0.33 |
| solidity v1 | 1.03 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.51 | 26.02 |
| state index | -0.35 | -1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.19 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.38 |