← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Tue, Jan 27, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Durkin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington win | 41% | 40% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Newport County win | 30% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newport County +0.25 | 56% | 1.83 |
| Accrington +0.25 | 44% | 2.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 57% | 1.70 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 43% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Alex Henderson · Accrington |
| 28' | 🟨 | Devon Matthews · Accrington |
| 32' | 🟨 | Conor Grant · Accrington |
| 35' | ⚽ | Nathaniel Opoku · Newport County |
| 40' | 🟨 | Connor O'Brien · Accrington |
| 45' | 🟨 | Michael Spellman · Newport County |
| 51' | ⚽ | Isaac Sinclair · Accrington |
| 58' | 🟨 | Ben Lloyd · Newport County |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Opoku · Newport County |
| 69' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Opoku · Newport County |
| 69' | 🟥 | Nathaniel Opoku |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newport County | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Rodney Parade |
| 82' | ⚽ | Paddy Madden · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟨 | Seamus Conneely · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟨 | Farrend Rawson · Accrington |
| 90' | ⚽ | — · Accrington |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 179.00 |
| 179.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1335.94 | 1442.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.46 | 17.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.79 |
| league points | 20.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 3.19 | 3.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.40 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.20 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |