← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Swallow
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walsall win | 50% | 49% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
| Accrington win | 22% | 21% | 4.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Accrington −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Walsall −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 58% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 42% | 2.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Connor Barrett · Walsall |
| 24' | 🟨 | Brandon Comley · Walsall |
| 30' | 🟨 | Isaac Heath · Accrington |
| 42' | 🟨 | Aden Flint · Walsall |
| 67' | 🟨 | Priestley Farquharson · Walsall |
| 69' | 🟨 | Donald Love · Accrington |
| 74' | 🟨 | Isaac Sinclair · Accrington |
| 89' | 🟨 | Aaron Loupalo-Bi · Walsall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Walsall | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Bescot Stadium |
| coach days | 115.00 | 176.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1539.16 | 1438.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.53 | 2.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.77 |
| league points | 46.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.84 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.79 | -0.28 |
| solidity v1 | 0.79 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.03 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.31 |