← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Dale
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 66% | 61% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.20 | fair |
| Shrewsbury win | 12% | 15% | 7.50 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury −1.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Milton Keynes Dons −1.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 46% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 54% | 1.95 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Iwan Morgan · Shrewsbury |
| 8' | ⚽ | Callum Paterson · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 10' | 🟨 | Luca Hoole · Shrewsbury |
| 11' | ⚽ (pen) | Callum Paterson · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 31' | 🟨 | Aaron Nemane · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 34' | ⚽ | Callum Paterson · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 40' | 🟨 | Taylor Perry · Shrewsbury |
| 81' | ⚽ | Luke Offord · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 83' | ⚽ | Thomas Sang · Shrewsbury |
| 88' | ⚽ | Daniel Crowley · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sam Clucas |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadium MK |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 176.00 |
| 176.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1523.43 | 1349.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.13 | -39.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 69.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.60 |
| league points | 44.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 64.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.39 | -1.10 |
| solidity v1 | 0.98 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.33 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 0.84 |