← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge win | 57% | 52% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.70 | fair |
| Tranmere win | 18% | 23% | 5.25 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cambridge −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Tranmere −0.75 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 58% | 1.70 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 42% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Nathan Smith · Tranmere |
| 19' | 🟨 | George Hoddle · Cambridge |
| 35' | 🟨 | James Brophy · Cambridge |
| 45' | ⚽ | Dylan Jones · Tranmere |
| 54' | 🟨 | Billy Blacker · Tranmere |
| 58' | ⚽ | Shayne Lavery · Cambridge |
| 63' | ⚽ | Charlie Whitaker · Tranmere |
| 67' | ⚽ | Kelland Watts · Cambridge |
| 77' | ⚽ | Kelland Watts · Cambridge |
| 86' | 🟨 | Aaron McGowan · Tranmere |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cambridge | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Abbey Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Ben Knight · Cambridge |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 176.00 | 84.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1537.55 | 1421.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 47.86 | -22.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | — |
| league points | 44.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.89 | -0.06 |
| solidity v1 | 0.61 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.68 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.44 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.77 |