← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carl Brook, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham win | 60% | 53% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 30% | 4.00 | value: +21% |
| Newport County win | 17% | 16% | 5.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newport County −1 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Gillingham −1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 50% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 50% | 1.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Michael Spellman · Newport County |
| 30' | ⚽ | Conor Masterson · Gillingham |
| 62' | 🟨 | Max Clark · Gillingham |
| 84' | ⚽ | Cameron Antwi · Newport County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andy Smith · Gillingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bradley Dack · Gillingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matthew Baker · Newport County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ciaran Brennan · Newport County |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Armani Little · Gillingham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Garath McCleary · Gillingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 22 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gillingham | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Priestfield Stadium |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 169.00 | 169.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1465.72 | 1326.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.85 | 0.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| league points | 32.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.17 | -0.63 |
| solidity v1 | 0.10 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.68 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.37 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.67 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.34 |